issue #76: consuming in the midst of a vibecession

it's not you, it's society

My line of work, like many out there, requires a lot of future planning. Each season I look six to twelve months in the future, trying to guess what people will be buying, thinking about what I want them to want to buy, attempting to land on how much they might be willing to spend. I look at historical data, couple that with company growth plans, and spend money on goods accordingly. Goods that really, I am just guessing our customers will like. It’s an educated guess. And one based on trends, data, what’s available in the market, brand ethos, and personal taste. But it’s a guess nonetheless.

Part of my job performance, and the success of the store as a whole, is based on sell through. Perhaps self explanatory, but it’s essentially how much we sold, at full price, of the goods we bought. So in part, I’m graded on how well I can guess. And in part, the ability of our store to remain profitable and open is based on….how well I can guess. Of course there are other factors as well - overhead costs, foot traffic, marketing efforts, events, staffing, discounts, profit margins, etc. etc. etc. But if I’m pretty wrong about what customers will want and how much of it, then we don’t make money, and our business fails.

So given that, I pay a lot of attention to consumer shopping trends, enthusiasm, and behavior. I am always curious about what, or not, is driving customers to spend, how much they are willing to spend, where they are willing to spend. I am curious on a store level, because that impacts my job directly - I need to know the behaviors of those actually walking through our door and opening their wallets - but I am also curious on a macro level, because our individual store is not immune from changing tides in overall consumer behavior. The store I work at is at the intersection of contemporary and advanced contemporary. It’s not luxury, where one caters to those that have money now, will continue to have money in the future, and will honestly be benefitted by whatever tax scheme this administration is cooking up. Our customer, rather, is what we call aspirational. They make a decent living, but likely do not come from wealth. They want to buy and wear nice things, but they have a budget. They value quality and style, but are discerning and still pay attention to price and brand value. This customer will feel the squeeze of tariffs and high grocery prices. They will notice that their dollar doesn’t go as far anymore. And they will pull back on discretionary spending, if they haven’t yet already.

And they’ll pull back not just because they have to, because the cost of living is going up at a higher rate than wages, because everyday goods are creeping up in price. But they’ll pull back because they feel like those things are happening. Or because they feel like rough times are headed their way. This could in part be based in fact, which it is, but it’s also largely based on vibes. And no matter what the numbers say (bad), the feelings matter here too (also bad). So even though we may not yet be in a true recession (although I, and lot of smart people, think that’s where we’re headed), we are definitely right smack dab in the middle of a vibecession. And it’s bad for business.

This vibecession era is directly correlated to a lot of the consumption trends I’m seeing out there - “underconsumption core”, thrifting, no-buy months or even years. When things feel chaotic and expensive we can take it upon ourselves to watch our spending, buy used, thrift, reject consuming - it’s a form of control, and it probably not only makes us feel better, but is also actually good for both our wallets and the planet. But what it’s not good for? Small business.

And listen, I actually do fully, fully support taking stock of our consumption. I love that it’s trending to buy used. I think it’s great that we are tempering our consuming and being mindful of what we’re spending and rejecting the need to buy so much, so new, so consistently. It fits squarely in my belief that we all have too much stuff and that our reckless consumption and years of mindless shopping and unfettered capitalism are all assisting in the destruction of our planet.

But on the other hand, I work each and every day not just in a small business, but with small businesses. I work hand in hand with independent designers and brands that rely on a consumer desire to spend money and buy new. Without new customers, without shopping, they do not survive. It’s crucial for them to continue to sell, to continue making new things, to continue to acquire new customers and retain existing. Without it, they will cease to exist as a business, and if there is one thing we need more of, it’s independent business. Without them, power and influence will continue to gather in the hands of a few, and these small designers will be put out of work - their love, talent, teams, passion, and creativity with it.

I struggle with this daily. Not just at work, when I watch the sales numbers come in and try to gently will customers with my mind to spend more on our small partner brands. But in my own life, as well. I shop for a living, and therefore am absolutely contributing to our general problem of having too much. Each day I am acutely aware of inventory levels and just how much stuff is out there. I don’t always feel great about it! But on the other hand, it’s a job I enjoy that keeps a roof over my head and food on the table, and those things are important, too. I try to use my spending power at work to support small and independent brands, because it’s where I actually do have spending power. Because on a personal level, I, too, am on a strict budget. I, too, am trying to consume less, own less, spend less. I, too, am aware that I have too much stuff. I feel lucky because of my access to beautiful things, but am also feeling the effects of this vibecession, as the one who also buys groceries each week and feels a pang of stress every time I add eggs to cart. As the kids say, the struggle is real, and in my life, finding that balance is a daily challenge, and one that takes up quite a lot of brain space. Not all of us are lucky enough to work in a job we know is changing the world for the better. I’d say a lot, of not most of us, work in regular jobs that pay us fine and keep us busy and at times are morally ambiguous. Or no…just me? As I said, there are great parts of my work that I think do change the world (at least someone’s version of it) - I feel proud to support independent brands, I feel proud to curate a space that inspires and creates a sense of discovery, I feel proud to work in the business of beautiful things because I believe in the power of beautiful things, and I feel proud to help our customers feel great in how they are dressing. But that goes hand in hand with over consumption, the ethical dilemmas of fashion and apparel manufacturing, and the creation of too much stuff.

But that all said, what can you do? If you’re reading this, my guess is that you care, first and foremost. You care about style, you care about small business, you care about the planet, you care about your bank account, you care about your future, you care about the economy, you care about your consumption. You care about stuff in the sense that there are some things you need and some things you want and both are fine and great and human and normal. But you also care to care, and want to be thoughtful in your buying, in what you own, in what you need and want. And that’s the first step, really. But what else? Might I suggest…

• Shop small and local where you can, but don’t feel bad when you can’t. I’m guilty of panic overnighting new pacifiers from Amazon from time to time, and each week rely on Whole Foods delivery because it’s a luxury that saves me time and energy, which I have to prioritize right now. But on the other hand, I only buy books from my local bookstore and strictly support my neighborhood pharmacy over CVS.

• The resale and thrift market is thriving right now. Set alerts for things you want. Sell your old clothes. Set up a neighborhood clothing swap. There is so much good stuff out there that doesn’t require buying new, but that still allows you to participate in the economy and scratch that shopping need.

• If your budget allows, try to buy full price - especially from small and independent businesses. Full price is how they make money, and profit margins are shrinking by the day, so literally every penny counts. I know we all want a deal (myself included!!), but if you’re buying to support a small brand, buying at full price is even better.

• Share the love! If you find something you like, a brand you love, a store you resonate with…talk it up. Spread the word. Get others in the know. Customer acquisition is really hard and really expensive. Help a small business out for doing some of that leg work for them!

• With all of that said….I’ll end with reminding you: don’t let anyone make you feel bad about shopping mass market. I do it all the time; it’s the moment of life I’m in. Mass market exists for a reason, and it is a still a great resource for more affordable goods and on trend product. Everyone deserves to feel good in what they are wearing and if, for you, that means shopping at H&M, then shop at H&M. It’s like plastic straws. Should we all try to avoid them? Sure. If you use one are you the sole murderer of all the turtles? No. As individuals we can control our consumption habits and be mindful of waste and all that, but at the end of the day, making any big change requires societal structures to shift with it, so, you know, live your life. Just try to be mindful, and do what you can.

Drop any other ideas and thoughts in the comments, I’d love to know how you all are thinking about this during this wild and weird time!

xx

jen